The San Francisco 49ers are entering the bye week at 4-4, as they look to reset and get some key pieces back before an important second half of the schedule.
It hasn’t been the start that San Francisco expected to start the year, but the 49ers had a key win over the Dallas Cowboys this past weekend to reach .500 and be tied for first place in the NFC West heading into a much-needed bye week.
Now, looking ahead to the second half of the schedule, the 49ers have a tough schedule ahead of them. So, how many games will San Francisco ultimately win in 2024?
Out of the bye week
The 49ers have two get-right games that should be seen as needed wins heading out of the bye week.
First, they travel to Tampa Bay to face the Buccaneers in Week 10 in a game between two playoff contenders. However, they’ll face Tampa without their top two receivers, as Chris Godwin is out for the year, while Mike Evans isn’t expected to be back from his hamstring injury.
While the Buccaneers have looked good this year, the 49ers usually are able to defend checkdowns well, and quarterback Baker Mayfield targeted his tight ends and running backs a good amount without his top two receivers in last week’s win over the Falcons.
Following that, San Francisco has a home contest against the Seattle Seahawks, who they’ve already beaten this year on the road. The 49ers have matched up well against Seattle during the Geno Smith tenure, winning each of the five games against the Seahawks quarterback.
If the 49ers get out of this two-game stretch at 6-4, they’re looking good heading into a tough road stretch over the next two weeks.
Tough on the road
The 49ers have back-to-back road games in Weeks 12 and 13, facing off against the Green Bay Packers and the Buffalo Bills in consecutive weeks.
Both teams have enjoyed strong starts to the 2024 season, and the 49ers will likely go into a colder environment in both late November games, which could make it tougher to beat a difficult opponent.
With the way both teams are playing, it’s entirely possible that the 49ers lose both games, but if they can pull off one victory in these two contests, they’ll be in good shape heading into the final stretch of the year.
A 1-1 split would put them at 7-5, which would likely have them at No. 1 in the NFC West heading into Week 14.
Back-to-back at home
The 49ers then return home for two home games, facing the Chicago Bears in Week 14 and the Los Angeles Rams in Week 15.
Heading into the year, many penciled these two games as wins, but it may not be so simple.
The Bears possess one of the league’s best defenses, and their offense has continued to emerge with rookie quarterback Caleb Williams, making them a potentially difficult opponent.
Additionally, the 49ers face a Rams team that they struggled against in Week 3, and that was with Los Angeles missing a bevy of key players, including wideouts Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua.
With what should be a much healthier team, that one could be closer than expected, but you also don’t expect San Francisco to make as many mistakes as they did in that game.
If San Francisco is able to win both, that’s a 9-5 start, which dramatically would increase their playoff odds. But, both games are winnable or losable, and could end up being a crucial point in the 49ers schedule.
Playoff contenders?
The 49ers have another tough two-game stretch after that, as they go on the road for a Week 16 matchup with the Miami Dolphins.
It’s been an uneven year for the Dolphins, primarily due to an injury to Tua Tagovailoa, which has led them to being 2-5 at the midseason mark. Additionally, their defense hasn’t looked as strong, which could be a factor in how well they play down the stretch.
But, that offense at its peak is still an extremely explosive offense, especially with running back De’Von Achane in the fold, so this game could be a tough one for San Francisco on the road.
Then comes arguably San Francisco’s biggest challenge: A Week 17 game against the Detroit Lions at home on Monday Night Football.
Detroit has looked impressive through the first part of the season, starting 6-1 with one of the more explosive offenses in football. That will be a tough battle for San Francisco’s run defense, and it’s fair to say that both teams will likely add pieces by the team this matchup comes with the trade deadline looming.
Once again, both of these games seem winnable or losable, adding to the wide variety of possibilities for the 49ers over the second half of the season. They could very well by 10-5 at this stage. But, it also doesn’t seem out of the realm that the team has just seven or eight wins as well.
Wildcard
The 49ers play the Cardinals in Week 18, which is always tough to predict because the final game of the schedule usually is dependent on where a team is in the playoff picture.
San Francisco could very well have nothing to play for in Week 18 if they have clinched the division, but can’t get a top-two seed in the playoffs. But, it could also be a crucial contest for the 49ers, and they should be clear favorites in this one, even on the road.
San Francisco had an ugly loss to the Cardinals in Week 5 at home, collapsing in the second half, but this should be a victory if it becomes a meaningful game for San Francisco.
Overall, it seems like there could be a wide variety of outcomes for the 49ers in 2024. They could very well close out the season 7-2 with a strong second-half run, as they’ve done in years past. Or, adversity could continue to come, and San Francisco may just end with eight to nine wins, which would be a disappointment.
