The Kansas City Chiefs

Are Patrick Mahomes interceptions about bad throws or bad luck for the Chiefs?

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At this point, almost every Kansas City Chiefs fan knows the stat: through six games Patrick Mahomes has thrown more inceptions than touchdown passes, 6 to 8. That’s a far cry from from his career average of 3.26 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Couple that with one of the lowest average depth of target of any quarterback in the NFL, and it’s reasonable to ask the question: Is Patrick Mahomes hurting the Chiefs offense?

The Chiefs are undefeated and many Chiefs fans will be quick to point to that as the only statistic that matters. Which is a nice way to look at things, but how sustainable is that? We all know the Chiefs likely aren’t going 17-0, so when the losses come, so will the questions about Mahomes.

There are lots of valid reasons why Patrick Mahomes isn’t having a good statistical season. Even last year with receivers actively sabotaging him, it took 8 weeks for him to throw his 8th interception. So what’s going on with the Chiefs offense this year?

#1- Ravens’ Roquoan Smith

Mahomes’ first pick of the season came at the hands of the all-world linebacker Roquan Smith. Mahomes forced a ball over the middle of the field and appeared to underthrow or not see Smith sitting in a zone defense. Rashee Rice was certainly open behind Smith but he just missed him. It also looks like he could’ve been potentially trying to just throw the ball into the ground, as there was pressure essentially touching him as he released the ball. Either way, a poor play for Mahomes standards better to take the sack or he needs to hit Rice here.

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#2- Bengals’ Akeem Davis- Gaither

Similar to the first pick, Mahomes is working the middle of the field again this time looking to Kelce. This time, you can see his eyes lock in on Kelce early in his progression and that’s where Davis-Gaither is already moving into the throwing lane as the ball is released. In the moment, this felt like a forced throw to “get Kelce going”; Kelce was open, but he had to throw the ball with more anticipation if that was the throw. Protection was solid on this one, but he might have already been hearing footsteps from the destruction of Trey Hendrickson on Kingsley Suamataia.

#3 Bengals’ Cam Taylor-Britt

This was an incredible play by the corner, since not many guys make this play one-handed. It’s easy to dismiss this one especially since they had already burned Taylor-Britt vertically with a Rashee Rice touchdown earlier in the game. However, Xavier Worthy lined up on the outside against press coverage with no free release isn’t a recipe for success. It’s a low percentage throw to begin with. We can debate if it should’ve been a pick but it was an unlikely outcome to hit this pass.

#4 Falcons’ Justin Simmons

Nobody has intercepted Patrick Mahomes more than Justin Simmons and part of that is he knows how to bait the Chiefs QB into some bad throws. Here it’s easy to see what Mahomes sees with Noah Gray fading into the end zone. A good throw that leads Gray into the open space probably results in a touchdown. Mahomes underthrows it (a trend in his interceptions) and Simmons gets him again. Notice Kelce in the bottom of the second screenshot celebrating cause he thought it was an easy score.

#5 Chargers’ Kristian Fulton

One of the worst plays in Patrick Mahomes’ career (when you factor in injuring Rice). Here you can see where Mahomes wanted to go with the ball to Kelce, and if he makes a perfect through he probably gets the completion on the corner route. However, there are two defenders in the zone near Kelce with cloud coverage over the top. Essentially, it’s triple coverage. Mahomes sails the throw over Kelce and right into the defender’s hands. This game was the bubbling-over point about Kelce’s lack of production and it felt like the Chiefs were force-feeding him the ball early in this game. A throw Rashee Rice and Patrick Mahomes would both like to have back.

#6 Saints’ Khalen Saunders

We can debate if this throw could’ve been a little more ahead of JuJu Smith-Schuster or not, but the point remains it hits him in the hands. KC uses a rub route with Xavier Worthy to give Smith-Schuster inside leverage to slant into the end zone. Good throw and read by Mahomes, but JuJu just can’t make the catch. These types of plays can be dangerous because there is so much traffic around the throw but ultimately NFL receivers need to make that catch.

#7 49ers Kailia Davis

Sometimes you just have to tip your hat to the other player for making a great play. Mahomes’ pass gets batted and caught at the line of scrimmage by Kailia Davis. Wasn’t really a bad throw or bad protection. It’s just a perfectly timed jump for Davis. Not sure there is much you can complain about from Mahomes here.

#8 49ers Deommodore Lenoir

Similar to the play against the Bengals and Cam Taylor-Britt. Not sure this is a throw that is qualified as a high-percentage play on 3rd-and-8. Worthy appears to be running a post route with Lenoir underneath and safety help over the top. Would’ve been a tight window throw but certainly not an interception until Worthy falls down after the ball is in the air. Not much you can do there for Mahomes other than just hope it doesn’t happen again.

Review

Of Patrick Mahomes’ eight interceptions, four of them feel like they were definitely his fault. Add another one on the incredible play by Cam Taylor-Britt and you’re at 5. The other three came down to bad luck. This tracks with PFF’s turnover-worthy throw metric which has Mahomes at 7. Of course, every QB has turnover-worthy plays that are dropped or recovered by his own team. However, this speaks to the fact that he’s playing better than 8 interceptions through 6 games.

Another obvious factor is the touchdowns, Mahomes isn’t throwing many of those for obvious reasons. He’s down his WR1, WR2, RB1, and was without WR3 for the 49ers game. Moreover, the Chiefs’ highly efficient running attack is making it more effective to run in the red zone. Kareem Hunt’s best trait might be his ability to get across the goal line, and his three touchdowns certainly eat into Mahomes’ numbers. We haven’t seen the shovel pass or push pass touchdowns that the Chiefs used to use down in the red zone cause they haven’t needed it.

Overall, Mahomes is due for some regression with interception luck. He’s having to force the ball to lesser pass catchers cause that’s what he has now. This still might lead to a higher number than Chiefs fans are used to seeing. He’s not playing his best and there are several obvious reasons why, but ultimately the numbers don’t do him justice.

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