Brock Purdy accidentally became important at work. Mr Irrelevant has never been more relevant to a San Francisco 49ers Super Bowl window that could well hinge on the outcome of his fairy-tale story.
Rarely, perhaps never, has a quarterback been drafted into the NFL greeted by fewer expectations and yet burdened with as much scrutiny. The Purdy discourse is about to rear its unjust head once more as the Niners hobble through one of their stickiest patches under Kyle Shanahan; by way of his own staggering early success he is about to be blinded by an overpowering spotlight, with which, though, comes an opportunity to do something special.
The Niners slumped to 3-4 on the year in Week Seven as they were out-schemed and out-executed in a 28-18 defeat to the Kansas City Chiefs, a rematch of February’s Super Bowl providing the latest haunting reminder of their recent inferiority to Andy Reid, Steve Spagnuolo and Patrick Mahomes – who posted the worst passer rating of his career and still emerged victorious.
Purdy had his worst game of the season as he finished 17 of 31 for 212 yards and three costly interceptions, two of which came on successive drives and both of which were punished by Chiefs touchdowns in a second half that got away from San Francisco. Spagnuolo has Shanahan’s number of late, but he has the number of most offensive minds in the NFL right now.
“I think I’ve just got to play better for sure just with my throws and some decisions,” said Purdy post-game. “That’s pretty simple.”
To pile onto their woes, the 49ers saw wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk exit the game with a knee injury that will keep him out for the remainder of the season having agreed a $120m contract extension in the summer. Unofficial wide-back inventor Deebo Samuel managed just four snaps due to illness, before being hospitalised with pneumonia during the week after a build-up of fluid in his lungs, while Jauan Jennings was also absent with a hip injury sustained against the Seattle Seahawks in Week Six as arguably the most highly-thought of WR3 in the NFL.
And reigning Offensive Player of the Year Christian McCaffrey is yet to see the field this season after being placed on injured reserve with Achilles tendonitis, his needle-moving influence underlined by a league-high 339 touches for 2,023 yards and 21 total touchdowns from scrimmage last season. Such have been their injury issues that rookie first-rounder Ricky Pearsall is listed as the third receiver on the depth chart after making his debut Sunday having been shot in the chest during an attempted robbery in the summer.
Shanahan’s Avengers-level armoury has been ripped apart – unassembled, if you will. With that, question marks have resurfaced over the correlation between his quarterback’s unlikely rise to stardom as the final pick of the 2022 Draft and the dream array of weapons around him. The ‘system quarterback’ argument falls flat to those willing to acknowledge the elite anticipation, accuracy and field diagnosis that helped guide the 49ers to the Super Bowl, but Purdy will know by now the doubt brigade will never stand down until he wins a ring.
With his A-lister entourage decimated, Purdy is tasked with keeping the Niners afloat as the playoff race begins to shape up approaching the halfway mark of the season. He was already seemingly heading towards a hefty pay-day somewhere in the region of $50m-per-year, but how sweet it would be to put this team on his back and keep them in contention in the absence of the stars to whom his production is so often credited.
Despite the team’s losing record, Purdy has still been playing some of his best football this season, in doing so offering signs of his ability to succeed without some of the key weapons around him available. He is currently second in passing yards behind only Baker Mayfield and ninth in CPOE+EPA composite (Completion Percentage Over Expected combined with Expected Points Added), while leading the league in air yards, ranking third in scrambles and second in aggressiveness (the NextGen Stats metric for pass attempts into tight coverage where a defender is within one yard or less of the receiver).
The 49ers offense is also still fourth in passing yards and sixth in dropback EPA, as well as being 12th in rush EPA and seventh in rushing yards per game behind the impressive yet not-McCaffrey Jordan Mason, so this thing is by no means a catastrophe. Shanahan, Purdy and the 49ers had a forgettable day at the office on Sunday, but not enough to write off their chances with No 13 under center.
“It’s never on one player,” said tight end George Kittle. “I know he’s probably disappointed with, what did he have, three interceptions? He’s going to be disappointed about that. He’s giving us chances to make plays.
“It seems like maybe he was trying to force something. All I know, Brock, this is his third year. He’s had a couple games he didn’t think he played very well in. I have no concern for Brock. I think he’s going to come back and sling the hell out of the football this week.”
Alongside personnel losses has been a new appearance to the 49ers behind Purdy, who is holding onto the ball longer and leaving the pocket more often than ever before as an NFL starter. The yards-after-catch numbers have declined significantly in comparison to past years, screen plays are a more truncated feature and the in-rhythm structure that had cushioned Purdy’s introduction has levelled out into more scramble attempts, off-script adventures, more throws downfield and more attempts into narrow windows as he takes on more of the playmaker role attributed to the more athletic quarterbacks around the league.
Spagnuolo knew how to beat him on Sunday, his press coverage rate nearing 60 per cent while clamping down on Purdy’s anticipatory skills and forcing some mis-timed passes and even non-releases. Two of this three interceptions notably came with the Chiefs in press coverage, per NextGen Stats.
But what the 49ers have largely seen from Purdy this season is more command when it comes to rejecting blown concepts or smartly-covered routes and in turn trusting his eyes to either tuck-and-run, switch up his angle from outside the pocket or shift to second and third reads. He knew he made some bad choices against the Chiefs, but also knows he had a third-down dime dropped by Aiyuk among a couple of potential momentum-swingers that might have fallen in his favour on another day.
That his numbers are skewed while facing more man coverage looks, leaving the pocket more and throwing to younger unproven targets isn’t so much a surprise, though.
“Is there more pressure to put on a Superman cape and do more? No,” Purdy said on Sunday. “I think who we have to step up in those positions, man. We have a lot of talent, in my eyes.”
Since 2022 Purdy ranks first among qualifying starting quarterbacks in EPA/play and success rate, something always worth remembering in the face of criticism. Yes, he could not ask for much more in the way of talent at his disposal, but he is comfortably exceeding what Jimmy Garoppolo achieved while facing the same argument, and seemingly continuing to evolve as a creator in a way Garoppolo could not.
For all of Mason’s fine work in the absence of McCaffrey, any quarterback and any offense in the league would face its challenges had their running game been pegged back in the same way. The 49ers are ranked 11th in rush EPA on first and second down through seven weeks in 2024, compared to this time last year when they were third; what’s more, they currently sit 18th in rush EPA on first down alone having been fourth through seven weeks in 2023. Ground control has always been Shanahan’s bread and butter, but the early down efficiency is hurting his team.
Deebo and Jennings are both expected back, McCaffrey is projected to return for the second half of the season and Kittle has the second-most receiving yards among tight ends this season, so Purdy and the 49ers are far from out of the picture. And on Sunday they could reorder the narrative emphatically with an ultimate spirit-lifting get-well victory over the Dallas Cowboys, who find themselves in a far more concerning state of affairs through six games.
But there is no hiding from the fact this remains one of the oldest rosters in the league, with Purdy in line to be paid and both Samuel and Kittle among those also coming towards the end of their deals. The Niners have also now lost two Super Bowls and two NFC Championship Games since 2019; Purdy has handled the attention tremendously since taking centre stage, but he is now more important than he or the 49ers could have ever imagined.
